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The Generation of Artificial Intelligence and the beginning of true autonomy

The beginning of true autonomy.

In the next five-Six years, we expect AI’s industry growth will start to explode and also its impact on business and society will begin to emerge.

By the end of the decade, we believe the recent rapid advances in AI will eventually plant progress firmly into the AGI phase – the beginning of true autonomy. AI-powered machines and software will likely start to untether from human supervision, embarking on their fateful path as sentient beings. But this will happen much later in the distant future. In the next four years, however, we believe AI's industry growth will start to explode and its impact on businesses and society will begin to emerge.
According to our estimates, the AI industry was a USD 5 billion marketplace by revenue in 2015,, a respectable size for such a budding sector. By 2020, we believe exponential improvements and broader adoption should more than double revenue to become a USD 12.5 billion industry. This represents a 20% annual growth rate. Assuming enterprise value/sales multiples of 10-15x, which is on par with other emerging fast-growing industries within the tech sector, AI as a standalone industry has the potential to claim a total market cap of USD 120-180 billion by 2020.

The Business Effect
Nowhere has AI had a greater impact in the early stages of the 21st century than in the office. Machine-learning technologies are driving productivity increases never before seen. From workflow management tools to trend predictions and even the way brands purchase advertising, AI is changing the way we do business. In fact, a Japanese venture capital firm recently became the first company in history to nominate an AI board member for its ability to predict market trends faster than humans.

There is so much potential for AI development that it’s getting harder to imagine a future without it. We’re already seeing an increase in workplace productivity thanks to AI advancements. By the end of the decade, AI will become commonplace in everyday life, whether it’s self-driving cars, more accurate weather predictions, or space exploration. We will even see machine-learning algorithms used to prevent cyber terrorism and payment fraud, albeit with increasing public debate over privacy implications. AI will also have a strong impact on healthcare advancements due to its ability to analyze massive amounts of genomic data, leading to more accurate prevention and treatment of medical conditions on a personalized level.

AI software will create significant business opportunities and societal value.

Software companies will take up the mantle and charge ahead, pushing the boundaries of automation, search and social media. Dubbed a machine's brain, AI will likely power automation in sectors like autonomous vehicles and unmanned drones. And AI software will create significant business opportunities and societal value.

For example, virtual assistants or chatbots will offer expert assistance; smart robots or robot advisors in the fields on finance, insurance, legal, media and journalism will provide instantaneous research or findings; and within the healthcare field, AI software will assist with medical diagnosis and assistance. Other benefits include significantly improving efficiencies in R&D projects by reducing time to market, optimizing transport and supply chain networks, and improving governance by better decision-making processes.

Are we at risk of being replaced?

Technological unemployment is unfortunately a byproduct of progress.

The concerns are legitimate, but during this period AI will not nearly be at such a developmental stage that its widespread adoption will trigger mass layoffs. The technology will still be used in relatively niche applications and will not yet achieve a level of critical mass that would threaten employment on a global scale.

In most areas, AI is poised to replace tasks, not jobs.

AI's rise and the ensuing surge in productivity will spur a plethora of opportunities for employees to upgrade their skills and focus on creative aspects. With the emergence of other disruptive business models like apps or sharing economies highly likely in a post-AI era, there is increased scope for jobs that require a high level of personalization, creativity or craftsmanship - tasks that will still need a person. These occupations are hard to imagine at this point, hence the job-related anxiety associated with AI's widespread integration; but they will quickly proliferate as new specializations are needed - comparable to the post-Industrial revolution bloom of factory workers.

The winners and losers of AI's rise

  1. Software companies
  2. Robotic process automation industries
  3. Healthcare
  4. Hi-tech engineering
  5. Select service companies
  1. Retail that won’t adopt Artificial Intelligence
  2. Automotive that won’t adopt Artificial Intelligence

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