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What will be the upcoming future of JDU in Bihar?


Bihar Elections 2020

A minority government is formed in a parliamentary system when a political party or coalition of parties does not have a majority of overall seats in the parliament. Such a type of government is not usually stable and the head of the government is not powerful enough to take the decisions on his own and has to take into consideration the views of other coalition partners on almost every matter.

 There have been many instances of the coalition governments being formed for a long time in India's journey of self rule and we hope so that many more will be formed for the sake of the counterbalance of the power in our democracy and also to make the people in power obliged to take into account a variety of views on an issue. At times, it is also necessary that we select a majority government too to not let the opportunist take advantage of the unstable governments for their own profit whether the elections are at the local level or at the national level.

In the 21st century India, the coalition governments we saw had the head of the government of the party whose seats were maximum in the coalition or was a major partner in the alliance. But since 2018 we are now observing a new trend which is often being used nowadays by almost every party to make the leader of the government from the party with fewer seats, which is usually to keep the small partner happy and to remain in power. 

Let us take a few examples of the incidence in Karnataka assembly elections were in the Congress-JDS' pre-poll alliance, Congress despite being the larger party with higher no of legislators than JDS came in coalition with the JDS and made Mr Kumaraswamy the Chief Minister of Karnataka. The government couldn't last for more than 18 months because of the defections of legislators to the opposition BJP making the Congress-JDS government fail the floor test and fall.

Now, there's another incidence of Bihar where the ruling coalition of JD(U)-BJP contested elections together but the situation became different as BJP got significantly more seats than the JD(U) and as was the pre-poll announced Mr Nitish Kumar of JDU became Bihar's CM with questions being raised about whether he should continue to the post or not.

Bihar Assembly Elections Results

In this election, the incumbent NDA with Nitish as CM candidate contested elections against the highly weighted Mahagatbandhan (MGB) with Tejaswi Yadav as CM candidate. Many exit polls declared MGB as the winner of elections but when the results of the elections came it was a complete shocker for everyone as the opinion polls which hinted towards NDA getting majority came true. Many political pundits were left awestruck as the numbers and hence the result came in favour of NDA.

In the results, the NDA bagged 125 seats while Tejaswi's MGB got 110 seats.

Party wise vote distribution showed that the RJD is the largest party (23.11%), with BJP 2nd (19.46%) and Nitish's JD(U) distant 3rd (15.39%) votes with vote swings clearly indicating that both JD(U) and BJP getting lower votes than previous elections and RJD getting more votes than the previous elections ( swing of +4.79% ). While other fronts didn't perform well but a new participant in the elections i.e. AIMIM performed well for a new entrant in the largely Nitish V/s Tejaswi contest making it difficult for other parties to win more seats by contesting out of the two alliances alone and thus damaging the prospects of both main alliances to win any further seats.

What is the problem?

Voice is being raised that despite the alliance's announcement of Nitish being the face of the coalition the people of Bihar have rejected the leadership of Nitish Kumar so he has no moral right to continue over the post and should make way for some other candidate from the majority party.

Why he is continuing?

Despite the eyes being raised on his decision to continue on the post-it is widely speculated as because of major partner's (BJP's) decision and trust on him and his experienced leadership skills. However, the main reason for the BJP to let him continue is the pre-poll promise to the people that he would continue to the post if the alliance wins the election. And in a democracy, every party and

candidate must fulfil the promises made to the people. Hence, the result.

Future path

Despite Nitish being elected as leader of the alliance for this term, the road ahead will not be easier for his party as compared to the previous terms in office as he has already stated that this the election will be his swansong; hinting at the possible retirement from active politics. So we might see some surprise announcement by a veteran who emerged as a popular leader from the famous Loknayak JP's "Jan Andolan for Total Revolution". 

With his party getting lower vote share (15.39%) than the previous elections (16.73%) it is true that the voter base of JD(U) has eroded significantly and it is largely attributed to the rise of not just the rise of opposition parties, smaller parties and alliance partner BJP in the state but also because of rising of RJD's Tejaswi Yadav and LJP's Chirag Paswan as the possible alternative to the Bihar's very own "Sushasan Babu".

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